Issue link: https://digital.copcomm.com/i/6065
best teams in the NFL tilting the run/pass ratio towards the pass, but the percentage of plays run out of the shotgun—a trend started by Brady and the Patriots—has greatly increased. The basic theory is that, after adjusting for the possibilities of sacks, incompletions, interceptions—all the ways pass plays can fail—on average, passing the ball yields more points than does running the ball. (The Vikings are one of the few exceptions to this rule, but then again, they do have Adrian Peterson in the backfield.) As a result, quarterbacks now run the show. The old saying, "Defense wins football games," still holds some truth, but they are becoming isolated instances when a defense actually clinches a game. The last two Superbowls have been won with amazing pass-catches and not defensive stands. The Indianapolis Colts may be the best example of this new trend. Six months ago, I honestly don't think anyone outside the city of Indianapolis imagined the Colts to be where they are today. After losing Marvin Harrison and Tony Dungy, breaking in new head coach, Jim Caldwell, and dealing with numerous pre-season gripes about team cohesion, most people figured the Colts to face a rebuilding year, maybe ending in a Wild Card berth, if they were lucky. Peyton Manning obviously wasn't reading the papers. So far, all he's done is win. In the process he's optimized his young receivers, given Jo Addai amazing room to run with his magician-like play action, and established a relationship with Reggie Wayne to rival what he'd created with Marvin Harrison. And, statistically, mainly due to interceptions, this isn't anywhere near his best year. When the game is on the line though, he's perfect. Consider: "Fourth and Two" requires scare quotes now because of Manning. Despite the soggy, dingy mediocrity of the League at-large, the Colts aren't the only team vying for perfection. Some people call this ironic; I say it's fortuitous. Yes, being good helps win games, but it's nice when most of your opponents are lousy too. However, for the Saints, records haven't really mattered. The "Game of the Year," the Monday Night showdown in New Orleans between the Saints and the Patriots, was flat out embarrassing. Before that game, as they do every week, the Saints huddled in a turbulent circle of black and gold, in the center of which stood 6'0 tall (or "short" by NFL standards) quarterback Drew Brees pumping up his team. He's gaining a reputation for his emphatic chants: "THIS IS NEW ORLEANS! AAWWOO!" In that game, I figured the Saints would come out hot, but Belichick would have devised a way to slow down the Brees air attack. Nope. New Orleans rolled over New England like they were Tampa or Detroit, and Brees showed that a composed, confident QB can outwit the most vaunted defense on the biggest regular season stage. Although they missed their chance at perfection, The Vikings, mainly as a result of Brett Favre's tantalizing performances, have stayed in the same conversation as Indy and New Orleans. Statistically, Favre's numbers are better than Manning's and only a hair beneath Brees's, but that may not matter in the end. The Vikings' run game and defense are both superior to the Colts' and Saints', and they take a lot of pressure off of Favre's 40-year-old arm. Both Viking losses this year—at Pittsburgh and at Arizona—occurred when Favre threw interceptions in situations where Minnesota could and should have run the ball. One would think that both Favre and head coach, Brad Childriss will learn from these mistakes, realizing that they can sting opponents with a brutal Adrian Peterson run just as easily as a 45-yard Favre-to-Sidney Rice bomb. This diversity to their playbook makes them as dangerous if not more than any other team, Colts and Saints included. All of this is not to say that there aren't a few other quality teams lurking in the shadows. Let's not forget the Cardinals last year and the Giants the year before. Both of those teams weren't predicted to do much of anything in the playoffs. Then there's the 2008 Patriots who, for all their perfection, couldn't seal the deal. So, here's to Philly, Cincinnatti, San Diego, and Green Bay; even though they're not the whitest and the brightest, they may end up being the most durable, and in football, as in good blue jeans, that's what matters most. LIVEMAGS.NET JANUARY>>10 27