Issue link: https://digital.copcomm.com/i/1277231
e d i t i o n 2 , 2 0 2 0 c g w 3 3 The computer graphics market has always been an exciting place since it began in the early 1960s. Challenged by hardware speed and costs, visionaries saw the potential, and driven by artistic and scientific quests, pushed the envelope seeking imagery and moving pic- tures that were indistinguishable from reality, as well as fantastic and imaginary. Computer graphics is not a single dis- cipline, but rather a collection of capabili- ties and people: processors, engineers, lots of memory, artists, displays and XR, tech- nical directors, programmers, and zillions of lines of code. So, the universe of CG has continuously grown, exponentially at times. Sometimes it has followed Moore's law, sometimes it's been boosted by soware breakthroughs and eureka moments. Growth in the dollar value of the market has leveled off a bit, but that's due as much to falling prices as it is to the asymptotic nature of any market. As a matter of fact, CG has seen growth for over 60 years – not many markets can make such a claim. Growth has slowed to an average (hard- ware and soware) of 1.2% CAGR, but at $154 billion a year, that's not trivial. The soware aspects of the market have been slow to flat, but hardware segments have been varied, influenced by consumer products such as game consoles and PC gaming machines. Virtual reality, which has gained so much attention, is hardly a factor in either hard- ware or soware, and despite some glowing forecasts, we don't think it will be a factor for a while. A growing point of exploration for VR today is in content creation where it is used for virtual production, a glamorous but tiny market. The real market for VR is in the design fields for professionals. The computer graphics hardware market was worth $130 billion in 2018 and is expect- ed to increase to $137 billion by 2023, with soware growing slightly and a little less than hardware. The hardware segment of the CG industry has seen steady overall growth, with some ups and downs due to product cycles and the irregularity of the PC market. The year 2019 witnessed the intro- duction of new GPUs and add-in boards (AIBs) with ray-tracing capabilities; several new CPUs and next-gen game consoles also were announced for the second half of 2020. The market for CG soware in 2018 was worth $14 billion (not counting services, maintenance, and other aspects) and is expected to grow to $17 billion by 2023 as the industry shis its sales model, moving more services to the cloud and transitioning to a subscriber system. Although it doesn't get discussed much, the digital graphics market is dominated by CAD/CAM. Digital video is a bigger market than the modeling or rendering segments, and yet when one reads about CG, it's all about the special effects in games and movies. That's easy to understand. Everyone loves VFX and has experienced it. In reality, truly amazing things are happening in CAD as the digital and real get connected. CAD has taken a leap, and it shows in increased revenues for all companies. And, although unsung, CAD is oen involved in the heavy liing of all those 3D models of cities and spaceships. The beautiful ray-traced images of automobiles, gorgeous skyscrapers, and clothing, bottles, and other consumer goods – it's all CG. The demand for programmers, artists, scientists, and designers continues to be strong, and we're seeing start-ups arrive in emerging and reborn markets such as aug- mented reality, virtual reality, and casual games. Artificial intelligence is becoming increasingly important in image process- ing, ray tracing, and AR. The arrival of new APIs and platforms are also stimulating development. Firms are actively looking for people who can use and exploit these new programs and their associated hard- ware accelerators. Given the trends in dropping costs, and the increasing users and usage of CG tools and hardware, we predict that the rate of growth for the CG industry will remain fairly steady for the foreseeable future. Computer graphics is truly a worldwide industry now. Dr. Jon Peddie (jon@jonpeddie.com) is a recognized author and pioneer in the graphics industry; president of Jon Peddie Research, a Tiburon-CA-based consultancy specializing in graphics and multimedia that also publishes JPR's "TechWatch"; and named one of the most influential analysts in the world. 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Monitors used for graphics 1.00 1.00 1.08 1.18 1.27 1.32 Workstations 10.48 12.37 13.08 14.50 15.90 17.16 Game consoles 14.81 12.06 12.47 17.29 17.25 16.45 Total gaming PCs 35.48 34.57 35.91 35.64 37.00 36.95 Mobile devices 68.63 75.35 70.73 65.70 66.70 65.37 TOTAL hardware ($B) 130.41 135.35 133.27 134.31 138.12 137.25 OVERALL CG MARKET TO GROW TO $154B BY 2023 BY JON PEDDIE COMPUTER GRAPHICS HARDWARE MARKET