Black Meetings and Tourism

January / February 2020

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B M & T ••• January/February 2020 ••• www.blackmeetingsandtourism.com 36 T R AV E L DATA D omestic business travel fell 1.6 percent in October, according to the U.S. Travel Association's latest Travel Trends Index (TTI), underperforming its six-month trend (0.8 percent). U.S. Travel econo- mists noted that, historically, business travel has declined in advance of leisure travel heading into an economic slowdown, which the organiza- tion called a possibly worrisome harbinger for the broader economy. Overall, travel to and within the United States grew 2.2 percent year- over-year in October, with the strength of domestic leisure travel (4.4 percent) offsetting the struggling business travel segment and keeping domestic travel overall in positive territory, with 2.6 percent growth. At the same time, the report predicts that the pace of domestic leisure trav- el's expansion is unlikely to sustain, with the Leading Travel Index (LTI)—the predictive element of the TTI—projecting leisure travel growth to slow to just 1.6 percent in the coming six months. On average through April 2020, domestic business travel growth will remain relatively slow at just 1.2 percent year-over-year. International inbound travel growth, which has oscillated between positive and negative territory in 2019, was flat in October. The LTI proj- ects inbound travel volume will decline 0.8 percent over the next six months as prolonged trade tensions and the high value of the dollar con- tinue to weigh on demand for travel to the U.S. This is in line with U.S. Travel's latest forecast, which projects a 1 per- cent decline in international visitation to the U.S. when final data is tallied for 2019. While global long-haul travel is projected to grow an average of 4.8 percent annually through 2023, the pace of U.S. growth is projected to be just half of that figure at 2.4 percent. This will further dimimish the U.S share of the total long-haul travel market to 10.4 percent by 2023 — continuing the steady slide from its previous high of 13.7 percent in 2015. The TTI is prepared for U.S. Travel by the research firm Oxford Economics. The TTI is based on public- and private-sector source data which are subject to revision by the source agency. The TTI draws from: advance search and bookings data from ADARA and nSight; airline bookings data from the Airlines Reporting Corporation (ARC); IATA, OAG and other tabulations of international inbound travel to the U.S.; and hotel room demand data from STR. RESEARCH: U.S. SHARE OF TRAVEL MARKET TO DECLINE THROUGH 2023 S luggish demand for overseas travel to the U.S. will sustain the trend of the country falling behind international travel growth worldwide, according to the latest forecast released by the U.S. Travel Association. While global long-haul travel is projected to grow an average of 4.8 percent annually through 2023, the pace of U.S. growth is projected to be just half of that figure—2.4 percent. That gap will further diminish the U.S. share of the total long-haul travel market to 10.4 percent by 2023—continuing the steady slide from its previous high of 13.7 percent in 2015. The 2019-2023 decline in market share would translate to a loss to the U.S. economy of a further $78 billion in visitor spending and 130,000 American jobs. As a result of the decline since the 2015 high, the econo- my has already lost $59 billion and 120,000 jobs through 2018, the U.S. Travel Association said. Additionally, the U.S. Travel Association is projecting soft growth ahead for domestic travel. According to the organization's latest forecast, the sector is projected to increase just 1.4 percent in 2020, the slowest pace in four years. The forecast represents a shift from previous reports by the U.S. Travel Association. In the organization's reports for both September and August of this year, domestic travel continued to grow despite sluggishness in the inbound travel market. U.S. TRAVEL ASSOCIATION RESEARCH: Domestic Business Travel Down in October

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