Issue link: https://digital.copcomm.com/i/1011494
e d i t i o n 3 , 2 0 1 8 | c g w 3 S P O T L I G H T Ever since it came into being during the 1970s, the computer graphics industry has been a mixed bag of technologies, users, and applications, and has had, for the most part, a consistent (and bumpy) growth record. The growth, largely influ- enced by hardware, has slowed in the past couple of years and will be low to slow going forward – but growth nonetheless. The above chart shows the growth in hardware and software, and whereas the software aspects of the market have been slow to flat, the hardware segments have varied, influenced by consumer products such as game consoles. Virtual reality, which has gained so much atten- tion, is hardly a factor in either hardware or software, and despite some glowing forecasts, we at Jon Peddie Research (JPR) don't think it will have an impact for a while. The main point of exploration for VR today is in content creation and design for professionals. The computer graphics hardware mar- ket was worth $130.2 billion in 2017 and is expected to drop slightly to $129.6 billion by 2021, with soware growing slightly better than hardware. The hardware segment of the CG industry has seen steady overall growth, with some ups and downs due to prod- uct cycles and the irregularity of the PC market. The largest growth has been in game consoles, gaming PCs, and worksta- tions, with the mobile graphics segment declining due to fewer units being sold and dropping ASPs as the suppliers compete in a rapidly shiing market. 2017 did not see the introduction of new GPUs and add-in boards (AIBs); however, several new CPUs and upgraded game consoles were introduced. The market for CG soware in 2017 was worth $16.1 billion (not counting services, maintenance, and other aspects) and is expected to grow to $17.7 billion by 2021 as the industry shis its sales model, moving more services to the cloud and transition- ing to a subscriber system. We will see the development of tra- ditional segments, such as CAD/CAM, expand as new design approaches in automotive, aerospace, and architecture are adopted. The visualization market is growing due to the availability of more powerful and less expensive visualization technologies and also as more customers add design analysis to their portfolio. GPU compute employing OpenCL and CUDA is penetrating further into new industries as well as traditional applications. The soware content creation market has been tough for the market leaders. They're living with a mature market with little growth but stability among the com- petitors. In other words, if everything stays the same, there's not much opportunity for growth. However, new opportunities are emerging as new approaches to content creation become practical, new distribution channels open up, and young generations arrive with a new fascination for 3D. The demand for programmers, artists, scientists, and designers continues to be strong, and JPR is seeing startups arrive in emerging and reborn markets, such as augmented reality, virtual reality, and casual games. The arrival of new APIs and platforms are also stimulating development. Firms are actively looking for people who can use and exploit these new programs and their associated hardware accelerators. New opportunities are also growing out of mainstream applications for the Web and consumer applications. The social Web remains a strong engine for growth. Social networks are encouraging people to learn new tools, create content for pleasure, and even look for jobs in the field. What used to be a very closed society of experts is now opening up due to the democ- ratization of CG, fueled by Moore's law and price elasticity due to lower soware costs. JPR believes a new generation of 3D creators is being born as 3D tools become more accessible. Early examples include the Creative edition of Windows, Adobe's Project Felix, variations on Nvidia's Iray, and developments using Chaos' V-Ray SDK. Although, cloud-based creation tools have been a bit of a disappointment: Those designed to be easy are usually not easy enough, and the results are unsat- isfactory; in addition, professional tools are not designed for the creatives, but for engineers. However, attractive pricing models are emerging, the tools will adapt, so we do see an interesting future for 3D content creation. Given the trends in dropping costs, and the increasing users and usage of CG tools and hardware, we at JPR predict that the rate of growth for the CG industry will remain fairly steady for the foreseeable future. Computer graphics is truly a world- wide industry now. CG Market to Reach $147B by 2021